OK, everyone, here’s a Geopolitical mess that is about to destroy your filament suppliers in Asia. It’s called The Rump War in the Persian Gulf. Here we go:
- Increased Production and Transport Costs
Petrochemical Feedstock Surges: Because many plastics used in filaments (such as ABS, PETG, and others) are derived from oil and natural gas, the spike in crude oil prices—which rose over 50% in the immediate wake of the conflict—will directly increase the manufacturing cost of raw plastic pellets.
Shipping and Logistical Disruptions: The potential for paralysis in the Strait of Hormuz affects the shipping of materials. Increased insurance, freight, and transportation costs are likely, especially for companies importing raw materials or finished filaments from Asia, a region heavily reliant on Middle Eastern energy.
Production Delays: Suppliers may declare force majeure (unable to fulfill contracts due to unforeseen circumstances), which has already been observed in the plastics industry.
- Impact by Filament Type
ABS/PETG/Nylon (Petroleum-based): These are expected to see the most direct and severe price increases due to their reliance on petrochemical feedstocks.
PLA (Plant-based): While PLA is derived from renewable resources (cornstarch/sugarcane), it is not immune. Rising energy costs for manufacturing and shipping will still increase the cost of producing and transporting PLA filament.
- Supply Chain and Market Shifts
Localized Shortages: As shipping routes become less reliable, temporary shortages or long lead times for specific colors or materials may occur.
Manufacturing Vulnerability: China, a major producer of 3D printer filament, imports a significant portion of its oil from the affected Persian Gulf countries, which may lead to higher manufacturing costs and reduced output.
Users should anticipate higher prices per kilogram and potential shortages in certain types of filament, particularly for specialized or technical materials, as manufacturers adjust to volatile energy prices and disrupted supply chains.
Summary: Buy it now or convert your printers over to print with dust bunnies.
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Time to learn how to recycle drink bottles into PET filament
PRC gets most of its oil from Russia, I believe it comes overland. Our news says they won’t be too badly affected.
South East Asia could be affected. Our news says we could be affected.
I am a dual national (SIngapore and UK). The UK’s attitude, like most of Europe, is to sleepwalk into a crisis. UK because it believes nothing affects it, and Europe because the European Union’s committes take 3 days of meetings to select teaspoons for the next meeting. Singapore is doing something but the government won’t say what. Though I do notice there is a recent energy saving initiative.
We (myself and family) stopped buying products from Russia, Israel, and the USA, a few years ago, and only do so if there is no alternative. I have been mostly successful in this regard.
I note in the news that that most of ASEAN (a loose association of South East Asian nations) is seriously considering increasing Russian oil purchases right now.
edit Fixed grammar, was unsure if I was writing English or Singlish, also forum messed up the formatting.
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What a waste of compute just to say this:
Filament is made from plastic, plastic is petroleum derived, there’s petroleum market instability, ergo there are potentially going to be shortages and price increases.
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since this is an AI thread, I copypasted the above into gemini, told it to respond, which it did in kind of a jingoistic psychotic way, then copypasted THAT response into ChatGPT and this is what you get
That post reads like someone skimmed three headlines, inhaled a map of the Persian Gulf, and decided your Benchy is now a casualty of global collapse. Let’s clean it up into something that doesn’t make the room smell like panic.
What’s actually solid vs. what’s… creative writing
1) “50% oil spike”
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If oil jumps 50% overnight, you won’t be worrying about filament, you’ll be pricing canned beans like gold futures.
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Normal volatility hurts margins, not civilization.
2) “Filament cost = oil cost”
3) Strait of Hormuz doom scenario
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If that chokepoint fully locks up, sure, shipping costs spike.
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But “some disruption” ≠ “no filament exists.”
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Supply chains reroute, slow down, get more expensive. They don’t just curl up and die.
4) PLA “not immune”
5) China oil sourcing
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Mixed bag. They’ve diversified (Russia, domestic, seaborne).
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Still exposed to global pricing like everyone else. Nobody gets a magic “cheap plastic forever” button.
A response that doesn’t sound like a prepper diary
Option A: Clinical and mildly unimpressed
“You’re not wrong that energy prices ripple into filament costs, but this reads like worst-case stacking. Resin cost is only part of filament pricing. Shipping and energy tend to move retail prices more than crude swings alone. Unless there’s an actual sustained disruption, this looks more like gradual price creep than a ‘buy it now or perish’ situation.”
Option B: Slightly sharper, still grounded
“If oil actually jumped 50% overnight and stayed there, filament would be the least interesting problem on the list. Realistically, manufacturers hedge inventory and costs get passed along slowly. You might see a few dollars added per spool, not a collapse of availability.”
Option C: Dry enough to sting
“If global trade collapses to the point PLA is scarce, your printer becomes a decorative cube long before your filament runs out. This feels like normal supply chain noise being narrated like the end of days.”
The “recycle bottles into filament” angle
Romantic idea. Reality check:
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Requires consistent feedstock (clean, sorted PET)
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Needs a filament extruder setup that doesn’t produce spaghetti diameter tolerances
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Time cost is hilariously high unless you enjoy suffering
It’s a hobby project, not a supply chain replacement.
Bottom line
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Prices might creep up. Happens every time fuel or shipping sneezes.
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Shortages? Maybe temporary, maybe specific colors or niche materials.
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Apocalypse-tier filament famine? No.
The post isn’t entirely wrong, it’s just… aggressively dramatic. Like forecasting rain and concluding you need to build an ark.
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@Bullocks I’m waiting for user.174 to finish their reply before I respond.
Of all the things to worry about over the next several months, filament is the least of your problems.
If you haven’t yet heard the term ‘tank bottom’, get ready for a nasty turn of events. If nothing changes, beginning in 4-6 weeks, EU and SE.Asian refineries will start going off line due to lack of feedstock. It’s already happening in Africa; Mali has erupted into open war amidst empty gas stations and no power in the cities.
$200/bbl oil is looking very possible. The USD is propped up by paper assets, Treasury Bonds, backed by the US economy. The economy will slow, then go down. Then down some more. Then likely more yet. The buying power of the USD will trend down along with the economy. Everything, absolutely everything, will become more expensive. In 3rd world countries this scenario results in hyper-inflation, as in get ready for the American Peso.
Medium term; almost half of the worlds Helium passes through Hormuz. Helium that is destined to support semiconductor manufacturing. There’s $180 billion booked to expand chip production by AI companies; this investment will be put on hold. No investment = no new jobs in this sector. The cascade effect of this, and parallel industries, will drag the world further down. Global depression is where it’s headed if nothing changes. Last time this was remedied by enjoying WW2.
And, if you haven’t noticed yet, the world has turned it’s back on the USA. The divorce papers have been filed. It’s over. Y’all are on your own. We’ve had enough of your threats, intimidation and bullying. I’d say Good Luck, but honestly don’t care enough to. Y’all did this to yourselves. And to us. Thanks for the good times; you’re on your own.
Like forecasting rain and concluding you need to build an ark.
I love it.
Nice break down and analysis. And if we look at filament prices over the last 24 months…
Filament Price Trends (Approx. 1kg Spool, USD)
Early 2024 (Q1-Q2)
- PLA / PLA+ $16 - $25
- PETG $18 - $28
- ABS $18 - $30
Mid-Late 2024 (Q3-Q4)
- PLA / PLA+ $14 - $22
- PETG $16 - $25
- ABS $16 - $28
Early 2025 (Q1-Q2)
- PLA / PLA+ $12 - $20
- PETG $14 - $24
- ABS $15 - $25
Mid-Late 2025 (Q3-Q4)
- PLA / PLA+ $11 - $19
- PETG $13 - $22
- ABS $14 - $24
Early 2026 (Q1-Q2)
- PLA / PLA+ $10 - $18
- PETG $12 - $20
- ABS $12 - $22
Even with current spikes, my argument holds less water. But it does help us see that there are spikes happening, and that says that the market is more venerable than the portrait from 50 feet away. Considering the effects that it’s having on the broader economy as @user.174 shows us.
I actually want to dig deeper into this, but this forum is not about political issues (regardless of how it affects us).
@Bullocks I’m glad you called me out on it. I was afraid no one would.
@user.174 Thank you for your contributions, IMO your not entirely wrong about the global issues on the horizon.
@Eponymous man, you are in the thick of it, and will feel it first. Good luck to you and your family. My prayers will be with you all.
I don’t think there was anyone else who provided any additional information or significance.
I feel
I feel this is somewhat outdated.
There are pretty good cheap filament extruders these days. And they have started to appear marketed towards consumers, for example the new creality R1/M1 combo. The extruder is the easy part of recycling . Print shredder and material purity is the hard part. However, matching bottles aren’t hard to come by, and you can join filament or rely on AMS to reload.
Not saying it is super easy or quick, but it’s much better than old days where you did a day work for half a bad a spool.
Thanks, but I don’t think it will get bad.
Prayers to imaginary beings are what started this whole thing. I don’t see how it will remotely help. (Edit: by that I mean it’s likely to make it worse)
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For you, maybe nothing
For me, it’s gotten me though an abusive marriage, the death of my only child, neglect, loneliness, and a world that, in general, doesn’t give a dam about anyone who is unwilling to enslave themselves to it’s hate and violence.
For me, it gives me hope and the strength to get out of bed everyday even though I know that everything I do is nothing more than passing time.
For me, it taught me to care about someone other than myself and my family. It helps me be a better person and wish that this stupidity would stop. and it reminds me that if I take action to stop it, I become part of the problem.
